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CHAPTER 1 – SIGNS

“Nine trillion dollars! Can you believe the federal government is nearly nine trillion dollars in debt?” my father asked at supper one evening. Daddy had a lot of opinions about government and the economy. He often shared them with us at suppertime. Our family wasn’t always together for supper. Sometimes Dad worked nights and therefore was sleeping then. My older siblings were often still at work, even me, at 11 years old had to be at soccer practice, music lessons or youth club at suppertime some days. But tonight we were all here. My full grown older brothers, Josh and Jake, an older sister, Melanie, Mom, Dad, and me, Alyssa, daddy’s little girl. Of course, I didn’t always understand what the grownups were talking about at mealtime, but I did recognize the gravity of them and I can still remember things that were said then.
"Nine trillion divided by our population 300 million is $30,000 of federal debt for each man, woman, and child in the US,” Daddy continued. “This debt will be the downfall of this country one day.”
It was sometime in late winter 2006 when Congress had raised the debt limit. I certainly could not fathom how much nine trillion dollars was nor could anyone at the table but we all realized how dangerous it was if for no other reason than Daddy’s temperament level.
“And it is on what the federal government spends all that money is the problem,” Melanie added. Mel was a junior in college and a finance major, therefore, she could usually inject important information into many discussions, or at least she could crank Daddy up about it.
“Some of this is because of the illegal immigrants,” Josh chimed in.
“How so?” Dad asked. Josh really didn’t have a good answer. He was just prompting Dad to more feverish discussion.
“Well,” he said, “it’s going to take money to build this fence on the Mexican border and to deploy the National Guard to patrol the border. Actually, that’s future spending, but Congress is great at spending money they don’t have. I’m right, aren’t I Dad?”
“You hit the nail on the head, son,” Dad answered. “But even right now, we, the taxpayers, are already paying for social services such as medical care that illegals are receiving in this country but that’s just a small portion of the spending the federal government does on social services for all of us.”
Mom jumped in, “I’m pretty sure we shouldn’t blame our government’s poor fiscal policy on the illegal immigrants. Just like them, our forefathers came to this country seeking prosperity and religious or other freedoms.”
“For the most part though, they entered legally,” Josh added.
“That’s true,” Mel said, “but remember that they are our brothers and sisters, simply separated by a man-made border, a border that perhaps should be torn down, not built up. Of course, I don’t like the fact that they are breaking the law, but the employers that knowingly hire them without proper paperwork, pay them under the table and don’t deduct the appropriate taxes are breaking the law, too. They should be held just as accountable. Additionally, the loss of that revenue isn’t helping the federal debt or the budgets of state and local government.”
“Well said,” Jake said, “the high oil prices can’t be helping either.”
“In more ways that one,” Dad continued. “Since oil has skyrocketed, the cost of everything has gone up with it; even the federal government has to pay more for the gasoline and heating oil that they use. Therefore, more tax revenue is needed and every business’s costs will be greater to pay for transportation, heat, and air conditioning. Their profits will be less, so tax revenues will drop, thereby, increasing the debt even more.”
“It’s not a pretty picture, is it?” asked Josh.
“Not at all,” Dad responded. “Do you think the founding fathers ever imagined a runaway central government such as ours?”
“Not according to our 12th grade social studies teacher, Mr. Adam,” responded Mel. “He thought the founding fathers recognized that the central government had to be controlled.”
“That’s why we have two senators from each state,” said Josh. “They were trying to maintain a balance of power. They also assigned certain powers to the federal government and reserved some for the states."
“That’s right,” said Dad. “But there is one state right that has been usurped by Washington and further drives up the federal budget and because revenue is short, up goes our debt even more.”
“Which right is that?” Mom asked.
“Education,” said Dad. “Education is a state right and responsibility but Washington has their fingers way too deep into it to suit me.”
“You mean like the ‘No Child Left Behind Act’?” asked Mel.
Dad continued, “That’s only one example of central government interference in our lives. A part of our lives that we’d prefer to have local control over. It truly is one major expenditure that could be completely eliminated from the federal budget. I know I’d vote it out if I was a congressman.”
“So what else is driving up our federal debt?” Mom asked.
“Well, the war in Iraq certainly isn’t helping,” responded Jake. “Why are we there, anyway?”
“Oil,” said Josh.
“The Monroe Doctrine,” said Mel. “We have to convert the whole world to democracy.”
“We’re the UN’s police. We had to enforce the sanctions Saddam Hussein had agreed to but reneged on. He really is an evil man, isn’t he?” Jake added.
Dad had a strong opinion about war. He hated it. He defined war as when old men who are supposed to be wise make decisions that cause young men to die. He pined for the day when war would not be an acceptable method of conflict resolution. About the time we were having this supper discussion, there were some Marines on trial for murdering civilians in Iraq. Dad went on, “what they did was wrong and probably a crime but maybe more of a crime was the fact that 537 elected officials in this country and countless other appointed United States government officials and military leaders, not to mention other nations’ leaders, had put our young men in harm’s way. I also feel war should be horrific. Many people should die or be maimed, burned alive, civilians murdered, cities destroyed, women raped, children carried off into slavery. The suffering should be monumental. Pillaging, looting.”
“Gettysburg, Hiroshima, Stalingrad, Iwo Jima, the Holocaust comes to mind. That is what war should be like. Forget rules of engagement, forget honor. Kill or be killed. Annihilate the enemy. Of course, no prisoners, and torture should be an integral part of any war. The uglier the war, the better. War has to be so terrible that no one will ever choose to take part in one again.”
“Leaders who think they can engage an enemy and because of integrity, technology or special weapons, have that engagement be sterile with few deaths, no civilians being hurt, or property damage are fools.”
“Gone are those days when kings would line up their armies in a green field, some blue coats and others red coats. The nobility would watch from a nearby hill in fancy dress and the women with parasols. They would shoot at each other until one commander would choose to retreat. The other side’s king would declare victory. The issue decided, the nobles happy and safe, while the commoners headed to the once lovely, but now bloody field, to retrieve the dead and wounded, many to die later from infection. But today, we still go to war and for what reasons. We fight for democracy, idealism, nationalism, imperialism, or economic reasons. So, for which of these reasons did we invade Iraq?” Dad concluded.
“I guess only President Bush knows for sure,” Mel said.
Dad answered, “I guess he does. But what I don’t guess is that God had a hand in it.” Now it did not take long for dad to bring God, Jesus, or the Bible into our discussions. For dad was faith-filled. It drove him. It guided him. He believed in the power of prayer. He used the Bible often to explain his positions. Dad didn’t mean that this war that we’re fighting was for God, what he meant that God’s will was being done. He knew this because he had prayed before we went to war while that decision was being made that God would give George Bush the right answer, the answer that God wanted, and that God’s will would be done. So, when the decision was made to go to war, even though dad hated it, he accepted it because he knew that’s what God wanted. That day when they pulled Saddam Hussein’s stature down, he realized it all the more that God’s will had been done and he recognized that the Iraqi people had been relieved of their suffering. It was God’s will and that was wonderful. The problems that come since, the high price of oil, whatever, that is just some of the consequences. The world is full of consequences.

week two
“So what is making the price of oil so high?” Josh asked.
“Well,” Dad said, “a lot of it has to do with greed. Many people would say it is the oil companies but some of it is out of their control. Crude oil is traded on the commodities market and the commodities market, like the stock market, is where the people are trying to make money without working anything, which I always felt was less than honorable, and somewhat unproductive. At the commodities market, speculators are trying to determine what the future price of things are going to be and with all the instability in the world, they’re bidding the contracts, the future contracts of crude oil, higher and higher and higher. Then once the prices of the future contracts go up, the cash prices follow. That’s the price that even the oil companies have to pay for the crude oil that they buy, and henceforth, everything goes up after that.”
“But the futures market has a real purpose doesn’t it Dad?” Josh asked.
Jake chimed in, “Sure does. In the futures market manufacturers can buy the inputs that they need ahead of time and then therefore know what their costs of production are going to be. A flour mill can buy its wheat. A trucking company can buy its fuel. An aircraft manufacture can buy its aluminum. This enables them to determine the price they will need to charge before production starts so their sales department can sell their products ahead of schedule at a known profit. Also, the wheat growers, the oil drillers, and the aluminum refiners know what they are going to receive for their commodities, insuring a profitable venture before they plant, drill or smelt. The whole process brings stability to the marketplace. So you see, the futures market does serve a purpose.”
“All that is very true,” said Dad. “It does have a purpose, but it seems like the speculators, investors whose only stake in the process is their money, overreact once in a while to every touchy world situation or weather report and drive the process out of whack.” Now Dad did not know everything. He was quick to admit that, but he learned a lot from a late night radio show that he listened to. Tio Jorge. They had a lot of different guests on. They had economists, political analysis, scientists, futurists, and so some of the things he knew about the world he learned from them, but other things he had learned in school. He learned from the Bible and from talking to many, many people.
“What do you think about inflation, Dad?” Mel said.
“Well, it’s not a nice word,” Dad answered. “I know it can’t go away as long as the price of oil continues to climb, because the cost of oil figures into the operational cost of almost every business whether it’s the production part or the transportation part. I do know the government is making a crazy mistake raising interest rates to combat inflation.”
“Yeah,” Mel said, “I don’t understand that one either, even though some of my professors try to explain it, that you stop inflation by raising interest rates.”
Dad answered, “No basis in my mind. You have to look at the cause of inflation. The cause of inflation is higher prices. Specifically, in this case, higher oil prices. What good does raising interest rates do to lower them? I think they are blind and I really think they are going to cause big trouble yet. Raising interest rates even reduces revenue for the federal government, increases their costs because the federal government is borrowing money all the time. Less revenue, more expenses, up goes the debt. It is a no-win situation. High interest is bad for everything and everyone except for the rich and the banks who get to charge the higher rate.”
“We’re back to that federal debt again, Dad,” said Josh. “It’s just no good, is it?”
“So,” Jake said,” what’s going to be the sign? How are we going to know when everything is going to collapse?”
“I don’t know,” Mom said. “It’s probably when this war with Iran kicks up.”
“Whoa,” said Mel, “we’re going to have a war with Iran?”
“I don’t know,” Mom said, “you just hear little things; they’re trying to negotiate this and that. We don’t want them to have a nuclear weapon. Israel is up in arms about it,” she concludes.
“It doesn’t look so good,” Dad chimed in, “I don’t really understand it. It’s all right for us to have nuclear weapons but it’s not all right for Iran to have nuclear weapons. It doesn’t sound like it’s fair to me. Just another reason to have a war, I guess. But I don’t really see this one happening. I think something else is going to happen to bring about the collapse or the next calamity.”
“What are you thinking, Dad,” Josh asked. “Well, one of those analysts on the Tio Jorge show a few months ago mentioned that Iran is the third largest exporter of oil in the world. Can’t remember who was first and second. I think Venezuela was first, maybe the other is Saudi Arabia. One of Iran’s biggest customers is China. Iran has hinted that they want to trade their oil in euros instead of in dollars. This analyst said that it’s a big problem because our debt is in dollars and our debt is to a lot of these countries that buy oil from Iran, whether it’s China or Japan. They are going to have to call in our debt. They are going to have to replace our debt with euro debt and our dollars are going to become even more worthless. So, in a sense, the next war that we have might not be a military war, it might be an economic war. We are already getting so many things from China.”
“That’s right Dad,” Jake said. “Everything at Wal-Mart is Chinese.”
“Well,” Dad answered, “I guess not everything, but there are a lot of people in China that can produce things and at a much cheaper cost than we do here but that is what China’s holding over us and perhaps one day that is what is going to finally finish our dollar off. The dollar has not been getting stronger. Silver was up to $14 an ounce. It used to be around $6 or $7. Gold went over $600 for the first time in fourteen years. Oil over $70 a barrel. Whenever it takes more dollars to buy something than it did before, that means the dollar is getting weaker and becoming more worthless all the time and that’s what is going to bring our downfall one day. I wished I was wrong, but that’s what the next war is going to be about. It’s going to be an economic war.”
“So,” said Mel, “the next war is not going to be Armageddon like we read about in Revelation?” Dad said, “That we don’t know. The Bible tells us only God knows when that’s going to be and personally, I think it is foolish to be guessing about it all the time. What I do know is whatever happens, we have to trust Jesus to take care of us. Although we can be prepared spiritually for tough times there are also some things we can do to prepare. But we can talk about that some other time. What’s for dessert?”
To be continued... look for more next week.
Note: I added the rest of chapter 1 to last week's blog so, at least for this week, new readers would not have to go to archives to catch the beginning of the story. Mort